Stats time: My take - Let me know about yours

Judicial Outcomes
Eugenio A Bruno
Garrido Law Firn
eab@garridolawfirm.com

"Pure Mathematics and Calculators"

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 Judicial Outcomes


As the decision from the Court of Appeals approaches, it is a good time to discuss some general possibilites about its outcomes. Let´s go straight to the point. My take:

1) Decision on ratable payment: 9 to 1 in favor of the plaintiffs. It is very difficult that the judges ignore the contracts (indenture and terms and conditions of the bonds).

2) Decision on the injunctions on the Bank of New York: two months my take was 50-50%. Or tied in 50 to 50. In the last two weeks my perception may have changed. Why? Filings from Citibank Argentina and Eurobondholders discussing the effects of eventual ruling affecting the chain of payments (basically, "dont attach my payments"), the "policy paper" from the IMF (coupled with complete lack of being friend of Argentina through the filing of an Amicus Brief) ("we want the injunctions because that would prove that Anne Krueger and the IMF were right in promoting the SDRM and the market-solutions to solve defaults don´t work) and significant silence from the U.S. government ("is the U.S. a true friend of Argentina?" - of course you may ask the opposite question if you want, but I would not recommend it). So, now my take is 7 to 3 towards the plaintiff. Still, 30% is good, as Wall Street and the majority of the legal community in NY considers that it is dead cause, a sort of 9.5 to 0.5.

3) U.S. Supreme Court? Again, I am in minority again. I think the supreme tribunal will accept the case. My colleagues think I am wrong. I dont think so. My take is towards acceptance. My doubt is whether or not the Supreme Court will request a bond for the appeal, some kind of escrow payment by Argentina. High chances it will.

4) Decision from the U.S. Court: too soon.

And what about paying outside New York? Give me a call.